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Business Forecasting;Using the United Kingdom statistics locates Banks consumer credit: Gross lending figures from 1993-2003
1.04 12431.73 11621.65 12086.52 842.48
Aug 92 12325 1.05 11738.10 11706.01 12291.31 33.69
Sep 93 11358 1.00 11358.00 11790.37 11790.37 -432.36
Oct 94 13247 1.00 13247.00 11874.72 11874.72 1372.28
Nov 95 12849 1.00 12849.00 11959.08 11959.08 889.92
Dec 96 12635 1.04 12149.04 12043.44 12525.17 109.83
Then, we can plot the decomposition forecasting against the actual data to illustrate what is happening.
The graph shows that the decomposition forecasting fits the actual data better at the middle. However, at the beginning and the end, there are some errors.
Comparing the forecast data with the rest of the data, we calculate them by extending the time line and see the result as following table:
Rest Data Time Factors Trend Forecast Errors
2002 Jan 12762.00 97 0.95 12127.79 11521.40 1240.60
Feb 11965.00 98 0.91 12212.15 11113.06 851.94
Mar 12679.00 [next page]