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Business Forecasting;Using the United Kingdom statistics locates Banks consumer credit: Gross lending figures from 1993-2003
99 1.00 12296.51 12296.51 382.49
Apr 13984.00 100 0.98 12380.86 12133.25 1850.75
May 14085.00 101 1.01 12465.22 12589.87 1495.13
Jun 12112.00 102 1.02 12549.58 12800.57 -688.57
Jul 14723.00 103 1.04 12633.94 13139.29 1583.71
Aug 13215.00 104 1.05 12718.29 13354.21 -139.21
Sep 12989.00 105 1.00 12802.65 12802.65 186.35
Oct 13494.00 106 1.00 12887.01 12887.01 606.99
Nov 12942.00 107 1.00 12971.36 12971.36 -29.36
Dec 13922.00 108 1.04 13055.72 13577.95 344.05
2003 Jan 13598.00 109 0.95 13140.08 12483.07 1114.93
Feb 12272.00 110 0.91 13224.43 12034.23 237.77
Sum of squared errors = 12895522.51
Mean-squared error (MSE) = 921108.75
Root-mean-squared error (RMSE) = 957.74
This RMSE is about 7.23 % of the mean for the rest of data during the forecast period
From the table above, we can notice the errors as illustrated the graph below which is plotted from rest data against forecast data of 2002-2003.
Although there is some significant errors, perhaps which are caused by economic uncertainty during that [next page]