Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Business Forecasting;Using the United Kingdom statistics locates Banks consumer credit: Gross lending figures from 1993-2003
that period, overall the plot graph below shows that the predict data relatively fit the real data.
3. Try an Autocorrelation approach on the same data and discuss the differences between the results and those from the Decomposition approach. Please comment on the different from of the equation for the forecast.
After the first difference, it shows that there are seven spikes on lag1, lag3, lag4, lag10, lag12, lag13, and lag14 so we will try on these lagged data to calculate correlations.
The table below shows the correlations between the actual data and lagged data
Correlations
DATA LAGS LAGS LAGS LAGS LAGS LAGS LAGS
(DATA,1) (DATA,3) (DATA,4) (DATA,10) (DATA,12) (DATA,13) (DATA,14)
DATA Pearson Correlation 1 .959** .969** .952** .936** .973** .940** .954**
Sig. (2-tailed) . .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
N 96 95 93 92 86 84 83 82
LAGS(DATA,1) Pearson Correlation .959** 1 .956** .969** .950** 959** .972** .938**
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 . .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
N 95 95 93 92 86 84 83 82
LAGS(DATA,3) Pearson Correlation .969** .956** 1 .957** .938**