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Business Forecasting;Using the United Kingdom statistics locates Banks consumer credit: Gross lending figures from 1993-2003
11227 10773 11941.88 987.12
Aug 92 12325 11898 10882 12307.40 17.60
Sep 93 11358 11791 9906 11625.06 -267.06
Oct 94 13247 12929 10857 12743.74 503.26
Nov 95 12849 12325 10892 12501.37 347.63
Dec 96 12635 11358 10709 11957.72 677.28
Then, we can plot the autocorrelation forecasting against the actual data to illustrate what is happening.
The graph shows that the Autocorrelation forecasting fits the actual data better at the middle. However, at the end, there are some errors.
Comparing the forecast data with the rest of the data, we calculate them by extending the time line and see the result as following table:
Time Data lag3 lag12 Forecast Error
2002 Jan 97 12762 13247 11143 13069.53 -307.53
Feb 98 11965 12849 10023 12165.68 -200.68
Mar 99 12679 12635 11062 12748.13 -69.13
Apr 100 13984 12762 11227 12911.3 1072.71
May 101 14085 11965 11898 12998.23 1086.77
Jun 102 12112 12679 11791 13242.02 -1130.02