business foresight and acumen
of 10 to 30 years.
The following trends and tendencies are pointed out:
 That technological development will be the key agent of change, and change will be faster and faster.
 The life cycles of the products will be shorter and shorter, and new knowledge networks will emerge.
 The operations of the national systems of innovation will be more and more decisive in the economic growth of the countries.
 The demands on education will increase, especially within technology and natural sciences.
Information technology will be the most important single technology, exposing science to new challenges and reducing the importance of geographical distance. In developing countries information technology is expected to dramatically influence the possibilities of growth. Biotechnology is another field of science, the importance and scope of which will increase. Globalization will get even more accentuated than it is today, and there will be free flow of information, investment capital, ideas, products and services between countries. The competitiveness of countries will largely be defined by their intellectual capital. International companies will offer products and services of high quality in all markets of the world. This will force local producers to enter into a process of constant development and improvement. The rate of economical growth in the industrialized countries will continue to be relatively low. Most countries will have a surplus of labour, and it is assumed that unemployment will remain at a relatively high level. Unemployment will particularly affect the unskilled and less educated segments of the work force. Many developing countries, especially in Asia, are expected to experience fast growth. It is predicted that by 2010 China will be established as one of the main competitors in the world market. The proportion of women in the work force will increase, and a series of new systems and models for childcare and housing services will emerge. The governments’ proportion of the GNP will diminish and the role of the state will change from direct intervention to provision of general framework, guidelines and the "rules of the game".
The UNIDO/ICS Technology Foresight Programme
Having recognized the importance of Technology Foresight, UNIDO launched in 1999 the TF Regional Programme with the objective to promote, encourage and support Technology Foresight Initiatives in the Region. More specifically through this Programme the mission of UNIDO is to became a permanent vehicle for a continuous, open and enhanced exchange of knowledge, expertise and best practices on Technology Foresight among Latin American and Caribbean Countries through the use and application of modern knowledge management techniques and advanced communication tools.
The following are key business drivers as those which will require a mainly technological response :
 Research and Development
 Manufacturing
 Outsourcing
 Product Delivery
 Customer and Markets
 Reputation.
There are, of course, other key business drivers, but it was considered that these would not require a mainly technological response.
Technological Responses
The likely technological responses of the specialty chemical and pharmaceutical sub-sectors to the business drivers listed below
Table 1 - Technological Response [next page]